Calendar

Feb
10
Mon
Overview of Likelihood-Based Inference @ York University Department of Psychology
Feb 10 @ 10:15 – 11:15
Quantitative Methods Forum @ Norm Endler Room (BSB 164)

Feb 10 @ 10:15 AM – 11:15 AM

Speaker: Dr. Augustine Wong, York University
Department of Mathematics and Statistics

Title: Overview of Likelihood-Based Inference

Abstract: Obtaining a confidence region or a performing significance test of a parameter based on the likelihood function is commonly used in statistics.  Professor Pek in last year’s presentation introduced two likelihood-based methods: Wald method (based on the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameter) and Wilks method (likelihood ratio method).  In this talk, the accuracy of these two methods is examined.  When the parameter of interest is a scalar parameter, a special way of combining the Wald method and the Wilks method is proposed.  This proposed method gives extremely accurate inference results even when the sample size is extremely small.

Suggested Readings:
          1. Barndorff-Nielsen, O.E., & Cox, D.R. (1994). Inference and Asymptotics. Chapman & Hall.
2. Bedard, M., Fraser, D.A.S., & Wong, A. (2007).  Higher accuracy for Bayesian and frequentist inference: large sample theory for small sample likelihoodStatistical Science 22, 301-321.
3. Doganaksoy, N. & Schmee, J. (1993). Comparisons of approximate confidence intervals for distributions used in life-data analysis . Technometrics 35, 175-184.
4. Fraser, D.A.S., 1990. Tail probabilities from observed likelihoods. Biometrika 77, 65-76.
5. Fraser, D.A.S., Reid, N. & Wu, J. (1999). A simple general formula for tail probabilities for frequentist and Bayesian inference . Biometrika 86, 249-264.
6. Reid, N. (1988). Saddlepoint methods and statistical inference. Statistical Science 3, 213-238.
7. Reid, N. (1996). Higher order asymptotics and likelihood: a review and annotated bibliography . Canadian Journal of Statistics  24, 141-166.
8. Wong, A. & Wu, J. (2000).  Practical use of small sample asymptotics for distributions used in life-data analysisTechnometrics 42, 149-155.
9. Wong, A. & Wu, J., (2001).  Approximate inference for the factor loading of a simple factor analysis modelScandinavian Journal of Statistics 28, 407-414.

(Note: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7 are background material, 2 is to related to Bayesian, and the rest are specific applications.)

Feb
11
Tue
Pseudo-likelihood methods for community detection in large sparse networks @ Sidney Smith Room 2118
Feb 11 @ 15:30

Pseudo-likelihood methods
for community detection in
large sparse networks

Arash Amini, University of Michigan
We consider the problem of community detection in a
network, that is, partitioning the nodes into groups that, in
some sense, reveal the structure of the network. Many
algorithms have been proposed for fitting network
models with communities, but most of them do not scale
well to large networks, and often fail on sparse networks.
We present a fast pseudo-likelihood method for fitting the
stochastic block model, a well-known model for networks
with communities, as well as a variant that allows for an
arbitrary degree distribution by conditioning on degrees.
We provide empirical results showing that the algorithms
perform well under a range of settings, including on very
sparse networks, and illustrate on the example of a
network of political blogs. We also present spectral
clustering with perturbations, a method of independent
interest, which works well on sparse networks where
regular spectral clustering fails, and use it to provide an
initial value for pseudo-likelihood. We discuss theoretical
results showing that pseudo-likelihood provides
consistent estimates of the communities under mild
conditions on the starting value, for the case of a block
model with two communities. Time permitting, we give
some insights as to why perturbations help with spectral
clustering on sparse networks.

Tuesday
February 11,
2014
at 3:30pm

Sidney Smith
Hall, Room
2118

Refreshments
will be served
at 3:15p

Pseudo-likelihood methods for community detection in large sparse networks @ Sidney Smith Hall, Room 2118
Feb 11 @ 15:30 – 16:30

Tuesday February 11, 2014 at 3:30pm

Sidney Smith Hall, Room 2118

*Refreshments will be served at 3:15pm

Pseudo-likelihood methods for community detection in large sparse networks 

Dr. Arash Amini, University of Michigan

We consider the problem of community detection in a network, that is, partitioning the nodes into groups that, in some sense, reveal the structure of the network. Many algorithms have been proposed for fitting network models with communities, but most of them do not scale well to large networks, and often fail on sparse networks. We present a fast pseudo-likelihood method for fitting the stochastic block model, a well-known model for networks with communities, as well as a variant that allows for an arbitrary degree distribution by conditioning on degrees.

We provide empirical results showing that the algorithms perform well under a range of settings, including on very sparse networks, and illustrate on the example of a network of political blogs. We also present spectral clustering with perturbations, a method of independent interest, which works well on sparse networks where regular spectral clustering fails, and use it to provide an initial value for pseudo-likelihood. We discuss theoretical results showing that pseudo-likelihood provides consistent estimates of the communities under mild conditions on the starting value, for the case of a block model with two communities. Time permitting, we give some insights as to why perturbations help with spectral clustering on sparse networks.

 

 

http://www.utstat.toronto.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/ArashAminiFeb112014.pdf

 

Feb
12
Wed
Beyond Measurement Artifacts: Integrating Measurement Equivalence with Theory Development in Cross Cultural Research @ York University Schulich School of Business, N106
Feb 12 @ 11:30 – 13:00
The Organization Studies area at Schulich invites you to attend a seminar with Professor Gordon Cheung (The Chinese University of Hong Kong). Prof. Cheung is an outstanding and innovative researcher with expertise in research methods and structural equation modelling, as well as international and cross-cultural research.
Prof. Cheung is currently professor at the Department of Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong.  He is a dedicated researcher with expertise in research methods and structural equation modeling. He has published more than 20 articles in research methodologies, which have been cited about 4,000 times. He has twice received the Sage Best Paper Award from the Research Methods Division of the Academy of Management (2000 and 2009) and in 2008 the Best Published Paper Award in Organizational Research Methods. Prof. Cheung served as the Division Chair of the Research Methods Division of the Academy of Management in 2006/07. Prof. Cheung’s research interest in measurement equivalence/invariance (ME/I) started more than 15 years ago and he has published over 10 papers in this area. His paper “Testing Factorial Invariance Across Groups: A Reconceptualization and Proposed New Method” published at Journal of Management in 1999 and the paper “Assessing Extreme and Acquiescence Response Sets in Cross-Cultural Research Using Structural Equations Modeling” published at Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology in 2000 define the way on how ME/I should be examined. The paper “Evaluating Goodness-of-Fit Indices for Testing Measurement Invariance” published in 2002 at Structural Equation Modeling Journal, which defines the standard on how nested models should be compared, has received more than 2,000 citations. The paper “Testing Equivalence in the Structure, Means, and Variances of Higher-Order Constructs with Structural Equation Modeling” published in 2008 at Organizational Research Methods received the 2008 Best Paper Published in Organizational Research Methods Award.Structure, Means, and Variances of Higher-Order Constructs with Structural Equation Modeling” published in 2008 at Organizational Research Methods received the 2008 Best Paper Published in Organizational Research Methods Award. 

Feb
13
Thu
Computational Foundations of Bayesian Inference and Probabilistic Programming @ Sidney Smith Hall, Room 1074
Feb 13 @ 15:30 – 16:45

Thursday February 13, 2014

at 3:30pm

Sidney Smith Hall, Room 1074

**Refreshments will be served at 3:15pm

Computational Foundations of Bayesian Inference and Probabilistic Programming

Dr. Daniel Roy, University of Cambridge

The complexity, scale, and variety of data sets we now have access to have grown enormously, and present exciting opportunities for new applications.  Just as high-level programming languages and compilers empowered experts to solve computational problems more quickly, and made it possible for non-experts to solve them at all, a number of high-level probabilistic programming languages with computationally universal inference engines have been developed with the potential to similarly transform the practice of Bayesian statistics.  These systems provide formal languages for specifying probabilistic models compositionally, and general algorithms for turning these specifications into efficient algorithms for inference.

In this talk, I will address three key questions at the theoretical and algorithmic foundations of probabilistic programming—and probabilistic modeling more generally—that can be answered using tools from probability theory, computability and complexity theory, and nonparametric Bayesian statistics.  Which Bayesian inference problems can be automated, and which cannot?  Can probabilistic programming languages represent the stochastic processes at the core of state-of-the-art nonparametric Bayesian models?  And if not, can we construct useful approximations?  I’ll close by relating these questions to other challenges and opportunities ahead at the intersections of computer science, statistics, and probability.

 

 

http://www.utstat.toronto.edu/wordpress/?page_id=18

 

Feb
24
Mon
Integrating Ratings of Child Psychopathology across Multiple Informants @ Norm Endler Room (BSB 164)
Feb 24 @ 22:15 – 23:15
Quantitative Methods Forum @ Norm Endler Room (BSB 164)

Feb 24 @ 10:15 AM – 11:15 AM

Speaker: Dr. Andrea Howard, Carleton University
Department of Psychology

Title: Integrating Ratings of Child Psychopathology across Multiple Informants

Abstract: One of the most significant challenges facing researchers and practitioners who assess child psychopathology is how to integrate information about a child’s symptoms from multiple sources when those sources provide discrepant ratings (De Los Reyes & Kazdin, 2004). It is common to obtain ratings for a single target child from informants such as parents, teachers, and peers, but it is less clear how to combine the information provided by multiple informants to derive an integrated measure of the psychopathology trait of interest that is not confounded with informants’ unique perspectives. A new approach to this problem stipulates a  trifactor measurement model to analytically disaggregate informants’ unique perspectives of children’s symptoms from a cross-informant consensus rating of their true symptoms (Bauer, Howard et al., 2013). Preliminary results from a new study expand the trifactor model to a three-informant, multi-trait assessment of inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity symptoms using data drawn from baseline assessments of children enrolled in a randomized controlled trial study of treatments for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). 

Suggested Readings:
Bauer, D. J., Howard, A. L., Baldasaro, R. E., Curran, P. J., Hussong, A. M., Chassin, L., & Zucker, R. A. (2013). A trifactor model for integrating ratings across multiple informants . Psychological methods, 18(4), 475-493.

Feb
27
Thu
Data mining with R: Let R ‘rattle’ you @ Ted Rogers School of Management, TRS 2-166 (8th floor)
Feb 27 @ 14:00 – 16:00

Title:  Data mining with R: Let R ‘rattle’ you

 

Description: 

 

This hands-on workshop will provide training in the rattle data mining package for R. rattle is a graphical user interface to transform, visualize and analyze data.

 

For hands-on exercises, please bring a laptop installed with R and rattle.

 

**R is available at http://probability.ca/cran/. Instructions for the rattle installation are available at http://rattle.togaware.com/rattle-install-mswindows.html or http://rattle.togaware.com/rattle-install-mac.html

 

Instructor:

 

Murtaza Haider

Associate Dean of Research & Graduate Programs

Ted Rogers School of Management

Ryerson University

 

Date and Time:  Thursday, February 27, 2014 (2:00 pm — 4:00 pm)

 

Location: 

 

Ted Rogers School of Management

55 Dundas Street West

Room TRS 2-166 (8th floor)

 

RSVP: Nik Ashton (nashton@ryerson.ca)

 

Feb
28
Fri
On a multiple-shock dependence structure @ North Ross 638
Feb 28 @ 10:30 – 11:30
 Su Jianxi supervised by Prof. Edward Furman will be giving a talk in the York University Statistics seminar series.
The title of the talk is: On a multiple-shock dependence structure. The seminar will be given on Friday Feb 28, 10:30-11:30 at N638Ross.
Mar
6
Thu
**CANCELLED** Backward Simulation of Poisson Processes @ Sidney Smith Room 1074
Mar 6 @ 15:30 – 16:30

SEMINAR

Thursday March 6, 2014 at 3:30pm
Sidney Smith Hall, Room 1074

**Refreshments will be served at 3:15pm**

Dr. Alexander Kreinin, IBM
Head of Quantitative Research, RFE Risk Analytics, Business Analytics

Backward Simulation of Poisson Processes

Multivariate Poisson processes have many applications in financial modeling. In particular, in the area of Operational Risk they are used for description and simulation of the frequencies of operational events. Practitioners often model the operational events independently despite observed correlations between the components. In this talk we discuss simulation of the multivariate Poisson model based on the “Poisson Bridge” idea, extreme correlations and their dependence on the intensities of the processes.

Mar
10
Mon
Evaluation of Intimate Partner Risk Assessment Inventories @ Norm Endler Room (BSB 164)
Mar 10 @ 10:15 – 11:30

Quantitative Methods Forum @ Norm Endler Room (BSB 164)

Mar 10 @ 10:15 AM – 11:15 AM

Speaker: Carrie Smith, York University
Department of Psychology

Title: Evaluation of Intimate Partner Risk Assessment Inventories

Abstract: In the interest of improving transparency, replicability, and validity, many jurisdictions and agencies are now favouring the use of empirically validated measures in violence risk assessment. To date, dozens of risk assessment inventories have been proposed for use in the domestic violence context, but none have been properly validated and their predictive efficacy remains limited.  In this talk, I will discuss the methodological limitations of the existing literature, the challenges in producing defensible research in this domain, and the ethical implications of actuarial style risk assessment in the domestic violence context.  I hope to inspire discussion about ways to improve the quality of future research in this important domain.